Rogers or Livan?

The Tigers have shown an interest in Livan Hernandez with the games that Boras and Rogers are playing right now. However, if the Tigers signed Hernandez instead of Rogers it would be a downgrade for their pitching staff. About the only thing Hernandez gives the Tigers that Rogers doesn't is a younger pitcher and someone who is a virtual lock to throw 200 innings. Now, that second point is imporant but outside of last season that last time Rogers didn't throw at least 195 innings was 1997, so he has been pretty durable too!

Rogers is simply a better pitcher than Hernandez. Rogers stikes out more guys per 9 innings, as Hernandez went from 5.3 in 2006 to 4.0 in 2007. A drop that might be a one year thing or might be a sign of the beginning of a drop in production. Hernandez allowed a .308 avg last year while Rogers was .264 in his few starts. 2006 Hernandez's BA against was better at .288 but Rogers was .253.

You will also have to sign Hernandez to a multi-year contract. He made $7 million last year and will likely get a raise based on the FA landscape for pitchers this year. Rogers would get a one year deal, maybe two (team/player option?) for no more than $10 million. You might have to commit $10 million to Hernandez for the next 3 or 4 years. Something I am not sure the Tigers want to or should do. With the depth of their pitching in the minors (albeit less than at the end of the season) the Tigers don't need to sign someone long term who will only get worse each year. Yes, Rogers has shown increadable stamina and retained his level of skill but with Hernandez already not as good it is hard to see him get better as he grows older.